Financial vibes don’t essentially predict electoral outcomes, although, and this marketing campaign is totally different in some ways from these previously. “We’re type of in an unprecedented state of affairs the place we’re weighing two incumbents,” mentioned Joanne Hsu, who runs the Michigan survey.

Anthony Rice, a 54-year-old Democrat in japanese Indiana, and just about everybody he is aware of, he mentioned, are doing effectively proper now. Gasoline costs are down, jobs are plentiful, and Mr. Rice, a unionized dump-truck driver, is benefiting straight from the infrastructure legislation that Mr. Biden signed in 2021. But few folks within the deep-red a part of the nation the place he lives will acknowledge that, Mr. Rice mentioned.

“There are extra folks now which are working, have higher jobs, have extra probabilities to get higher jobs now than at another time,” he mentioned. “I don’t perceive why they’ll’t see how good it’s.”

Amber Wichowsky, a political scientist at Marquette College who has studied voters’ financial perceptions, mentioned it was not shocking that many Individuals is likely to be feeling uneasy regardless of robust financial knowledge. The pandemic and its aftermath have been deeply disruptive, she mentioned, and it isn’t shocking that it may take time for issues to really feel regular once more.

The query, Ms. Wichowsky mentioned, is how a lot, if in any respect, voters’ views will shift because the marketing campaign will get underway in earnest. To date, Mr. Biden has made little obvious progress in promoting his financial message, however many citizens aren’t but paying consideration. Within the coming months, the Biden marketing campaign may even ramp up a gross sales effort for the president’s financial document — together with billions of {dollars} in spending on infrastructure and clear vitality, which is able to turn out to be simpler to speak as initiatives get underway.